Impact of Climate Change on El Nino and La Nina
According to recent research, climate change can cause extreme and more frequent El Niño and La Niña events.
• The findings have been obtained using one of South Korea’s fastest supercomputers, Aleph.
• Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide can cause a weakening of future simulated El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature variability.
• Future El Niño events will lose heat to the atmosphere more quickly due to the evaporation of water vapour. Also, in the future there will be a reduced temperature difference between the eastern and western tropical Pacific,inhibiting the development of temperature extremes during the ENSO
• There can be a weakening of Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) in the projected future which can cause a disruption of the La Niña event.
o TIWs are a dominant feature of monthly variability in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Ocean.
What is ENSO?
ENSO is nothing but El Nino Southern Oscillation. As the name suggests, it is an irregular periodic variation of wind and sea surface temperature that occurs over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO affects the tropics (the regions surrounding the equator) and the subtropics (the regions adjacent to or bordering the tropics). The warming phase of ENSO is called El Nino, while the cooling phase is known as La Nina.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a climatic cycle characterised by high air pressure in the Western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern. In normal conditions, strong trade winds travel from east to west across the tropical Pacific, pushing the warm surface waters towards the western Pacific. The surface temperature could witness an increase of 8 degrees Celsius in Asian waters. At the same time, cooler waters rise up towards the surface in the eastern Pacific on the coasts of Ecuador, Peru, and Chile. This process called upwelling aids in the development of a rich ecosystem.
What causes El Nino?
El Nino sets in when there is anomaly in the pattern. The westward-blowing trade winds weaken along the Equator and due to changes in air pressure, the surface water moves eastwards to the coast of northern South America. The central and eastern Pacific regions warm up for over six months and result in an El Nino condition. The temperature of the water could rise up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Warmer surface waters increase precipitation and bring above-normal rainfall in South America, and droughts to Indonesia and Australia.
What are El Nino’s effects?
2. El Nino affects global weather. It favours eastern Pacific hurricanes and tropical storms. Record and unusual rainfall in Peru, Chile and Ecuador are linked to the climate pattern.
3. El Nino reduces upwelling of cold water, decreasing the uplift of nutrients from the bottom of the ocean. This affects marine life and sea birds. The fishing industry is also affected.
4. Drought caused by El Nino can be widespread, affecting southern Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, and the Pacific Islands. Countries dependent on agriculture are affected.
5. Australia and Southeast Asia get hotter.
6. A recent WHO report on the health consequences of El Nino forecasts a rise in vector-borne diseases, including those spread by mosquitoes, in Central and South America. Cycles of malaria in India are also linked to El Nino